Matt Karash: Playing Canes GM Jim Rutherford (Pt 2): Value for available Canes via trade

Defensemen. The Oilers need defensemen above all else.

Ward to Edmonton won't work if Carolina is demanding one of their top 4 players in return. Only chance of it happening is if Carolina gives up a lot more

One of Hall/Nuge/Eberle/Yakupov

For

Ward
Lindholm
Murphy

Personally I still wouldn't do it if I'm Edmonton. Ward comes with too much risk to give up a top line player. Gagner for Ward+ is possible, but if I'm trading one the big four then I want the package above and a 1st.

It may be waaaay too much but I'm not making this deal assuming Ward's value is the same it was 4 years ago.

Ward to Edmonton won't work if Carolina is demanding one of their top 4 players in return. Only chance of it happening is if Carolina gives up a lot more

One of Hall/Nuge/Eberle/Yakupov

For

Ward
Lindholm
Murphy

Personally I still wouldn't do it if I'm Edmonton. Ward comes with too much risk to give up a top line player. Gagner for Ward+ is possible, but if I'm trading one the big four then I want the package above and a 1st.

It may be waaaay too much but I'm not making this deal assuming Ward's value is the same it was 4 years ago.
- Steven_Dean

Rutherford would not be giving up prospects like Lindholm or Murphy. There is no depth in the system to backfill. Canes need to be adding prospects not getting rid of the few they have left.

Does anyone else think Ward to the Jets makes some sense? Maybe Ward and Ruutu for Pavelec and Buff? Similar contract values with Pav and Ruutu being the deadweight. Jets get a goalie and the Canes get a top 4 defenceman.

Ward to Edmonton won't work if Carolina is demanding one of their top 4 players in return. Only chance of it happening is if Carolina gives up a lot more

One of Hall/Nuge/Eberle/Yakupov

For

Ward
Lindholm
Murphy

Personally I still wouldn't do it if I'm Edmonton. Ward comes with too much risk to give up a top line player. Gagner for Ward+ is possible, but if I'm trading one the big four then I want the package above and a 1st.

It may be waaaay too much but I'm not making this deal assuming Ward's value is the same it was 4 years ago.
- Steven_Dean

Serious Ward, Lindholm(5th overall last year) & Murphy for one on those Oiler 4. Are you nuts? Why do so many over rate these kids. Yes they have been media hyped, yes they get paid 6 million dollars(that must mean they are good) but tell me what they have accomplished. Besides Yakapoo, they are not 18-19 anymore. They are all very good hockey players but Im sorry, Ward has won a Cup. I can see Ward & Lindholm for Eberle & Kleffblom or Oilers 2014 1st, because if they get Ward, they wont be a top 5 pick by the end of the year.

Rutherford would not be giving up prospects like Lindholm or Murphy. There is no depth in the system to backfill. Canes need to be adding prospects not getting rid of the few they have left.
- Barbecued Hockey

I don't think ward to Edmonton makes as much sense as advertised

Ruutu for booth. If you wanna throw in low picks or minor leaguers fine.

Serious Ward, Lindholm(5th overall last year) & Murphy for one on those Oiler 4. Are you nuts? Why do so many over rate these kids. Yes they have been media hyped, yes they get paid 6 million dollars(that must mean they are good) but tell me what they have accomplished. Besides Yakapoo, they are not 18-19 anymore. They are all very good hockey players but Im sorry, Ward has won a Cup. I can see Ward & Lindholm for Eberle & Kleffblom or Oilers 2014 1st, because if they get Ward, they wont be a top 5 pick by the end of the year.
- Kevin R

They haven't accomplished anything because they are still young and on a poopty team. They are among 7 or 8 good players from a 23 man roster.
Put Ward behind this defense and people will be wondering how this guy ever won a cup, and we will still be picking in the top 5.

Ruutu for booth. If you wanna throw in low picks or minor leaguers fine.
- Tuner

If they are throwing away Ruutu the Oilers should be able to offer more than that basement suite dwelling,moose shooting cheapskate Booth.

Backlund and Baertchi for Ward and a pick

Backlund and Baertchi for Ward and a pick
- cmpdave

That's a good deal for Carolina.

Does anyone else think Ward to the Jets makes some sense? Maybe Ward and Ruutu for Pavelec and Buff? Similar contract values with Pav and Ruutu being the deadweight. Jets get a goalie and the Canes get a top 4 defenceman.
- jimithing

I think Ward to Jets makes sense, but I do not see the Canes taking back Pavelec's salary which is the problem. It is 1 thing to take a bad contract for a player who fits somewhere in your lineup (even if it is 3rd line). It is a completely different thing to take a bad contract on a player who most nights does not play (#2 goalie). I would also be surprised to see the Canes interested in Byfuglien.

Ladd or Kane are exactly the kind of size/physical play that Canes need more of but 2 things on that:
1) I am skeptical that either of those players are even being shopped. Both seem like the kind you would build around not get rid of.
2) No way would either come back for Ward.

So I think it is like this...IF Jets are ready to punt on Pavelec and possibly buy him out then Ward might fit. But I still don't see a deal that makes sense for both sides.

Ward to Edmonton won't work if Carolina is demanding one of their top 4 players in return. Only chance of it happening is if Carolina gives up a lot more

One of Hall/Nuge/Eberle/Yakupov

For

Ward
Lindholm
Murphy

Personally I still wouldn't do it if I'm Edmonton. Ward comes with too much risk to give up a top line player. Gagner for Ward+ is possible, but if I'm trading one the big four then I want the package above and a 1st.

It may be waaaay too much but I'm not making this deal assuming Ward's value is the same it was 4 years ago.
- Steven_Dean

I don't see Rutherford parting with Murphy or Lindholm. Canes are already too light on futures, and both project to be important parts of the team a couple years out.

I really think I have it about right in my blog. I don't see Rutherford settling for a package of medium parts, and I also get that Edm does not want to part with a rising young star to add a goalie who has become a bit of a reclamation project.

But here's the thing...Unless Scrivens comes in and lights it up the rest of this season (which is possible), I don't see Edmonton going into next season with a questionable/murky goalie situation again next season. It played a significant role in the Oilers being out of the playoff hunt by mid-November. People don't really think they will risk that again do they? Defense is a little bit easier to fix during the summer because there are so many more options via free agency and trade and you only need probably 2 players. How many even potentially top-tier goalies will be available this summer? 2 or 3 maybe (Miller, Halak, ???). Does it really seem likely that a player with a number of options (i.e. Miller) will choose a team that looks more like "still rebuilding" than "ready to contend?"

At some point, and I think it is soon, Edmonton's brass will be forced to place a bet on something that might work versus assuring failure by doing nothing. Best bet is that this time happens about a week into free agency this summer when if it becomes clear that none of the trade targets that they tried at the draft socializing will pan out and it also looks like none of the handful of top free agents are Edmonton-bound. But if Edmonton waits until this point, they are forced to negotiate from a point of weakness and arguably a bit of desperation even.

I ask the Oilers fans:
1) Are you okay with "waiting until next year" again next season?
2) Do you really think something like Scrivens/Bryzgalov is a bet on something different even if the defense improves some?

I don't see Rutherford parting with Murphy or Lindholm. Canes are already too light on futures, and both project to be important parts of the team a couple years out.

I really think I have it about right in my blog. I don't see Rutherford settling for a package of medium parts, and I also get that Edm does not want to part with a rising young star to add a goalie who has become a bit of a reclamation project.

But here's the thing...Unless Scrivens comes in and lights it up the rest of this season (which is possible), I don't see Edmonton going into next season with a questionable/murky goalie situation again next season. It played a significant role in the Oilers being out of the playoff hunt by mid-November. People don't really think they will risk that again do they? Defense is a little bit easier to fix during the summer because there are so many more options via free agency and trade and you only need probably 2 players. How many even potentially top-tier goalies will be available this summer? 2 or 3 maybe (Miller, Halak, ???). Does it really seem likely that a player with a number of options (i.e. Miller) will choose a team that looks more like "still rebuilding" than "ready to contend?"

At some point, and I think it is soon, Edmonton's brass will be forced to place a bet on something that might work versus assuring failure by doing nothing. Best bet is that this time happens about a week into free agency this summer when if it becomes clear that none of the trade targets that they tried at the draft socializing will pan out and it also looks like none of the handful of top free agents are Edmonton-bound. But if Edmonton waits until this point, they are forced to negotiate from a point of weakness and arguably a bit of desperation even.

I ask the Oilers fans:
1) Are you okay with "waiting until next year" again next season?
2) Do you really think something like Scrivens/Bryzgalov is a bet on something different even if the defense improves some?
- CarolinaMatt63

First bolded point: Defense has not been easy to fix for the Oilers. It's been a huge weakness for several years now, and it's the #1 weakness on the team. In fact, it might be the most glaring weakness of any team in the NHL. All energy should go into patching those cannonball sized holes in the roster.

Second bolded point: If we do that, we've already succumbed to the assumed position of weakness, and the acts of desperation that you describe as a negative point later. That being said, I'm not opposed to them making a risky deal at this point...for a #1 defender.

1) Yes, provided we get the fixes so necessary on defense and in the two-way forward category.
2) Revamped defense is so much more important than goaltending for this team that it hardly makes sense to talk about signing a mid-range goalie, let alone acquiring an elite one, before we upgrade the D.

Sorry for the overkill, but I just could not believe that anyone in management who's watched the oilers could see anything more crucial than acquiring a top defenseman.

Serious Ward, Lindholm(5th overall last year) & Murphy for one on those Oiler 4. Are you nuts? Why do so many over rate these kids. Yes they have been media hyped, yes they get paid 6 million dollars(that must mean they are good) but tell me what they have accomplished. Besides Yakapoo, they are not 18-19 anymore. They are all very good hockey players but Im sorry, Ward has won a Cup. I can see Ward & Lindholm for Eberle & Kleffblom or Oilers 2014 1st, because if they get Ward, they wont be a top 5 pick by the end of the year.
- Kevin R

There's no way we're giving up Eberle for a goalie, let alone adding a first this year, even if it were to be outside a top 5 pick.

Also, it's looking like the Oilers would need to win about 18 of their last 33 games to even fathom getting out of the bottom 5. Cam Ward has 6 wins in 19 starts and would be heading to a worse defense. It's looking very very very unlikely we'll get out of the bottom 3, let alone bottom 5.

Perhaps this could end up playing out over the summer like the Corey Schneider situation did.

Assuming the Oilers don't want to part with one of their big 3 F for Ward (understandably), what about Ward for the 1st round pick this summer?

I don't see Rutherford parting with Murphy or Lindholm. Canes are already too light on futures, and both project to be important parts of the team a couple years out.

I really think I have it about right in my blog. I don't see Rutherford settling for a package of medium parts, and I also get that Edm does not want to part with a rising young star to add a goalie who has become a bit of a reclamation project.

But here's the thing...Unless Scrivens comes in and lights it up the rest of this season (which is possible), I don't see Edmonton going into next season with a questionable/murky goalie situation again next season. It played a significant role in the Oilers being out of the playoff hunt by mid-November. People don't really think they will risk that again do they? Defense is a little bit easier to fix during the summer because there are so many more options via free agency and trade and you only need probably 2 players. How many even potentially top-tier goalies will be available this summer? 2 or 3 maybe (Miller, Halak, ???). Does it really seem likely that a player with a number of options (i.e. Miller) will choose a team that looks more like "still rebuilding" than "ready to contend?"

At some point, and I think it is soon, Edmonton's brass will be forced to place a bet on something that might work versus assuring failure by doing nothing. Best bet is that this time happens about a week into free agency this summer when if it becomes clear that none of the trade targets that they tried at the draft socializing will pan out and it also looks like none of the handful of top free agents are Edmonton-bound. But if Edmonton waits until this point, they are forced to negotiate from a point of weakness and arguably a bit of desperation even.

I ask the Oilers fans:
1) Are you okay with "waiting until next year" again next season?
2) Do you really think something like Scrivens/Bryzgalov is a bet on something different even if the defense improves some?
- CarolinaMatt63

One thing to remember is Edmonton is basically done this year anyway. And there are a lot of great UFA goalies coming up that can be signed or acquired without giving up any high end assets.

A package of Ward and a 1st for Eberle will never happen. It is a bad deal unless Ward returns to the same form he won a cup with (which begs the question why would Edmonton trade equal value for a long shot maybe? No one will. )

Perhaps this could end up playing out over the summer like the Corey Schneider situation did.

Assuming the Oilers don't want to part with one of their big 3 F for Ward (understandably), what about Ward for the 1st round pick this summer?
- Gossler1

I think that pick is going to be very valuable for us, and (not to harp on it) it represents our big chance to trade for our #1 need - a top pairing dman.

I just don't see Cam Ward (and by extension elite goaltending) to be a target anytime soon.

Serious Ward, Lindholm(5th overall last year) & Murphy for one on those Oiler 4. Are you nuts? Why do so many over rate these kids. Yes they have been media hyped, yes they get paid 6 million dollars(that must mean they are good) but tell me what they have accomplished. Besides Yakapoo, they are not 18-19 anymore. They are all very good hockey players but Im sorry, Ward has won a Cup. I can see Ward & Lindholm for Eberle & Kleffblom or Oilers 2014 1st, because if they get Ward, they wont be a top 5 pick by the end of the year.
- Kevin R

What have Lindholm and Murphy accomplished? Much much less. Not to say they are not worth a lot or won't be top line players in the future but if you are going to down play the oilers top players because they didn't accomplish anything then the same must be said for your players which makes the deal:

Very talented NHL player with no accomplishments for 2 not as good prospects with less accomplishments and an overpaid goalie who one a cup once. I don't believe any of that crap but you see how people can turn that on you.

The offer may seem like an overpayment but when you are trading a 1st overall like Hall for a "hope he turns it around" goalie and 2 prospects with lesser ceilings then you should try to get more IMO.

What have Lindholm and Murphy accomplished? Much much less. Not to say they are not worth a lot or won't be top line players in the future but if you are going to down play the oilers top players because they didn't accomplish anything then the same must be said for your players which makes the deal:

Very talented NHL player with no accomplishments for 2 not as good prospects with less accomplishments and an overpaid goalie who one a cup once. I don't believe any of that crap but you see how people can turn that on you.

The offer may seem like an overpayment but when you are trading a 1st overall like Hall for a "hope he turns it around" goalie and 2 prospects with lesser ceilings then you should try to get more IMO.
- Steven_Dean

A very long time ago...

First bolded point: Defense has not been easy to fix for the Oilers. It's been a huge weakness for several years now, and it's the #1 weakness on the team. In fact, it might be the most glaring weakness of any team in the NHL. All energy should go into patching those cannonball sized holes in the roster.

Second bolded point: If we do that, we've already succumbed to the assumed position of weakness, and the acts of desperation that you describe as a negative point later. That being said, I'm not opposed to them making a risky deal at this point...for a #1 defender.

1) Yes, provided we get the fixes so necessary on defense and in the two-way forward category.
2) Revamped defense is so much more important than goaltending for this team that it hardly makes sense to talk about signing a mid-range goalie, let alone acquiring an elite one, before we upgrade the D.

Sorry for the overkill, but I just could not believe that anyone in management who's watched the oilers could see anything more crucial than acquiring a top defenseman.
- Morris

First, thanks for stopping by. Your intelligent hockey debate is welcome and appreciated even if we disagree on some things.

While I think it is a given that the Oilers need to get better on defense, it is more debatable whether doing that will make an average/inexperienced goalie good enough to push for the playoffs. But it's possible, and your thoughts on which comes first/more important are good ones.

A couple comments though:

1) I am not sure I agree that the Oilers have "tried" to improve the defense. The Oilers used every 1 of their 1st rounders at forward (except for Nurse obviously but he was not intended to help 2013-14 and who knows if 2014-15 is still pushing it too much). I guess there is a case that Klefbom and Nurse are half of a future top 4, but when? And can this organization wait that long?

2) There is some sense to focusing on the forward lines in the draft, as defensemen take longer to develop and are less predictable. So building the defense via trade/free agency is a reasonable approach. But the Oilers have not done much there either. My quick count over the past 3 years shows a couple wash type trades (NSchultz/Gilbert, Sutton/Foster, Fistric/futures, minus Smid). And free agency-wise the Oilers are plus what? Barker, JSchultz (good but offense not defense), and Ference and minus Souray.

What Oilers' management has done on the blue line looks much more like "wishing" than "trying." I stand by my original assertion that improving on the blue line is a little bit easier than in goal simply because there are so many more options. At goalie if you want to get a good 1 or even a potentially good 1, there will be at most 3-4 available this year which leaves more teams than that who need help in goal either playing Russian roulette with unprovens or hoping they win the game of musical chairs to get 1 of the top guys available. I think Edmonton is especially challenged in using the free agent market offering a still rebuilding team with a weak defense.

All of this said, as someone pointed out, the Oilers are not going anywhere this season, so seeing what Scrivens can do and then dealing with the goalie situation if he is not the guy this summer is a reasonable option.

First, thanks for stopping by. Your intelligent hockey debate is welcome and appreciated even if we disagree on some things.

While I think it is a given that the Oilers need to get better on defense, it is more debatable whether doing that will make an average/inexperienced goalie good enough to push for the playoffs. But it's possible, and your thoughts on which comes first/more important are good ones.

A couple comments though:

1) I am not sure I agree that the Oilers have "tried" to improve the defense. The Oilers used every 1 of their 1st rounders at forward (except for Nurse obviously but he was not intended to help 2013-14 and who knows if 2014-15 is still pushing it too much). I guess there is a case that Klefbom and Nurse are half of a future top 4, but when? And can this organization wait that long?

2) There is some sense to focusing on the forward lines in the draft, as defensemen take longer to develop and are less predictable. So building the defense via trade/free agency is a reasonable approach. But the Oilers have not done much there either. My quick count over the past 3 years shows a couple wash type trades (NSchultz/Gilbert, Sutton/Foster, Fistric/futures, minus Smid). And free agency-wise the Oilers are plus what? Barker, JSchultz (good but offense not defense), and Ference and minus Souray.

What Oilers' management has done on the blue line looks much more like "wishing" than "trying." I stand by my original assertion that improving on the blue line is a little bit easier than in goal simply because there are so many more options. At goalie if you want to get a good 1 or even a potentially good 1, there will be at most 3-4 available this year which leaves more teams than that who need help in goal either playing Russian roulette with unprovens or hoping they win the game of musical chairs to get 1 of the top guys available. I think Edmonton is especially challenged in using the free agent market offering a still rebuilding team with a weak defense.

All of this said, as someone pointed out, the Oilers are not going anywhere this season, so seeing what Scrivens can do and then dealing with the goalie situation if he is not the guy this summer is a reasonable option.
- CarolinaMatt63

You're right they have been trying moreso than wishing.

I guess I'd counter with the fact that when it comes to attracting free agents, Edmonton is not in position to succeed as easily as you're portraying. For us, wishing is easy, but actually fixing the Defense through trades and free agency is difficult. I think they see it as #1 priority now.

And as for whether Scrivens/Bryz can bring them to the playoffs, I agree they might not be able to.

But I think it's evident that Ward behind a defense that's similar to this year's defense will absolutely not get it done.

So any assets that they'd consider spending on a goaltender, I'd imagine they'd more readily consider using them on upgrading D.

I know that MacT said in an interview recently that he liked the FA class for goaltenders. Now this was before the Dubnyk & Scrivens trades but that might be an indication of his thoughts about spending trade assets on a top goaltender at this juncture.

I don't know what's the most prudent course of action, but it seems more likely to me that they'll wait to see how the defense shakes out before looking at a trade for a goaltender.

You're right they have been trying moreso than wishing.

I guess I'd counter with the fact that when it comes to attracting free agents, Edmonton is not in position to succeed as easily as you're portraying. For us, wishing is easy, but actually fixing the Defense through trades and free agency is difficult. I think they see it as #1 priority now.

And as for whether Scrivens/Bryz can bring them to the playoffs, I agree they might not be able to.

But I think it's evident that Ward behind a defense that's similar to this year's defense will absolutely not get it done.

So any assets that they'd consider spending on a goaltender, I'd imagine they'd more readily consider using them on upgrading D.

I know that MacT said in an interview recently that he liked the FA class for goaltenders. Now this was before the Dubnyk & Scrivens trades but that might be an indication of his thoughts about spending trade assets on a top goaltender at this juncture.

I don't know what's the most prudent course of action, but it seems more likely to me that they'll wait to see how the defense shakes out before looking at a trade for a goaltender.
- Morris

I would hope so. Any real assets spent on a goaltender without fixing the D is futile. Vladislav Tretiak would like Mikhail Schtalenkov on this team.

Assuming he's still here, I'm interested to see how Ward looks if he indeed plays next week as Dreger reported. Several of us speculated that he was not 100% healthy when he returned earlier. I still feel like he was rushed back because he was the healthiest option (we found out later that Mike Murphy was also injured). I think the few games he got in were "let's see how he feels" type games just to give Peters a break.

If he comes back healthy and plays well before the Olympic break, then that changes this a lot.